In a forecast released last month, Airbus says global demand for passenger aircraft will more than double over the next 20 years.
Airbus’s Global Market Forecast 2018–2037 estimates that 37,390 passenger and freighter aircraft will need to be built to satisfy future demand, representing a market value of about $5.8 trillion. Of that total, roughly 26,500 planes are expected to meet growth in traffic, while about 10,850 will replace aging or less-efficient aircraft.
The manufacturer projects that approximately three quarters of the demand — roughly 28,550 airplanes — will fall into the Small segment, which generally corresponds to single-aisle aircraft used on short- and medium-haul routes.
Demand for Extra-Large aircraft, the category that includes very large models such as the A380 superjumbo, is much smaller. Airbus pegs the requirement in that segment at around 1,600 planes, reflecting weaker recent sales for very large, four-engine types.
Airbus attributes sustained passenger traffic growth to several long-term trends, noting an annual growth rate of about 4.4 percent. Key drivers include rising disposable incomes, expanding global middle classes and stronger demand from emerging economies, which the company expects will account for more than 60 percent of traffic growth over the forecast period.
“There is a growing trend to use aircraft across a broader range of operations, with today’s more capable aircraft blurring the boundaries between market segments. These realities made us develop a new segmentation with Small, Medium, Large and Extra-Large categories, reflecting more closely the way airlines operate aircraft,” said Eric Schulz, Airbus chief commercial officer.
Schulz added that Airbus’s product family is well positioned to serve those shifting needs. He pointed to the A321neo as an efficient, high-capacity single-aisle capable of longer routes, while modern widebody types such as the A330neo can be used on shorter regional services. “We’re extremely strong in this Medium market segment,” he said, underlining the company’s focus on versatility and efficiency across aircraft categories.