Airbus forecasts that over the next 20 years the aviation industry will need approximately 34,170 additional passenger aircraft to accommodate rising demand and to replace aging fleets.
Released in the Global Market Forecast 2017–2036, the report predicts the global passenger aircraft fleet of planes with more than 100 seats will more than double by 2036, exceeding 40,000 aircraft. Passenger traffic is expected to grow at about 4.4 percent per year.
The company attributes this expansion to several factors: more first-time flyers, higher disposable incomes allocated to travel, growing tourism, liberalization of air services, the opening of new routes, and evolving airline business models. Altogether, the new aircraft are valued at roughly $5.3 trillion.
According to the forecast, about 60 percent of the new deliveries will be required to support traffic growth while the remaining 40 percent will replace older, less fuel-efficient models. The industry will also need to recruit and train a substantial workforce—more than one million pilots and maintenance engineers—to operate and maintain the expanding commercial fleet.
Regional demand will be led by emerging markets, with the Asia-Pacific region expected to receive roughly 40 percent of new deliveries. Europe is projected to account for about 20 percent, and North America about 16 percent.