China is projected to account for roughly 19 percent of global demand for new aircraft over the next 20 years, driven by an aviation market that will need about 7,400 new passenger and freighter planes.
These findings come from Airbus’s 2018–2037 Global Market Forecast. The study indicates that the majority of the demand will come from the small, single-aisle segment serving domestic and regional routes: approximately 6,180 of the 7,400 new aircraft fall into this category.
By contrast, demand for larger aircraft is limited: roughly 240 aircraft are expected in the large category and about 130 in the extra-large category. This distribution highlights that China’s aviation growth will be dominated by short- and medium-haul services, even as Chinese carriers expand their long-haul international networks.
Over the past decade, domestic air traffic in China has grown about fourfold, frequently posting double-digit annual increases. Forecasts suggest that within the coming decade China’s air traffic could become the world’s largest, potentially tripling from current levels.
Christian Scherer, Airbus’s chief commercial officer, has stated that China is set to become “the world’s number one aviation market in the very near future.”