Airbus has published its 20-year forecast for global air travel, estimating that 34,170 passenger aircraft will be needed to support airline growth and fleet replacement.
The Global Market Forecast 2017–2036 projects that the world’s passenger aircraft fleet of roughly 100 seats will more than double over the next two decades to exceed 40,000 airplanes, with passenger traffic increasing at an average annual rate of 4.4 percent.
“Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years,” said John Leahy, chief operating officer, customers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft. “Asia-Pacific remains the primary engine of growth, and domestic travel within China is expected to become the largest single market. Rising disposable incomes and the rapid expansion of air travel in emerging economies mean the number of people flying will nearly triple by 2036.”
The forecast attributes this surge to a mix of factors: a growing pool of first-time travelers, higher disposable incomes directed toward air travel, expanding tourism, liberalization of air service agreements, the introduction of new routes and evolving airline business models. Together these trends are expected to drive demand for more than 34,000 passenger and freighter aircraft, with a combined market value of about $5.3 trillion.
To support the expanding commercial fleet, the industry will require more than one million pilots and maintenance technicians. Growth is expected to be strongest in emerging regions—particularly Asia-Pacific, which is forecast to account for over 40 percent of new aircraft deliveries—followed by Europe at roughly 20 percent and North America at about 16 percent. Single-aisle aircraft will dominate demand, representing around 70 percent of new deliveries, with nearly 25,000 such planes expected to be required.